Despite going 20-6, picking every UFC fight in the last two weeks, the betting results have been subpar. We go down by -0.90 units on UFC Des Moines, but are still up +4.9 units. We’ll take it going into UFC 315.
At UFC Kansas City, it was Michel Pereira who sold us. This week, it’s Bo Nickal after all the hype comes crashing down. I had a feeling a few weeks ago that this was his reality check, but I went against my better judgment. Never again.
UFC 315 has several exciting fights, including two title fights. Here’s a look at the main card, and don’t forget to check back for our best bets later in the week as we right the ship after two lackluster cards.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Benoit Saint-Denis
1.09
8.00
Kyle Prepolec
The betting lines on this card should tell you all you need to know. When was the last time you saw an under 0.5 rounds line? The books are expecting Benoit Saint-Denis to end Kyle Prepolec quite easily. This is as short notice as it gets, and BSD looks ready to get back on the winning trail after dropping some big fights against tough competition.
It’s a little surprising the UFC couldn’t find a better opponent, but BSD also rejected the Mateusz Gamrot fight. The boxing and power will be the difference here. If this fight stays standing, it’s hard to give any edge to Prepolec. Given the betting line, it would be shocking to see BSD lose this fight.
Alexa Grasso
3.05
1.40
Natalia Silva
It’s crazy how quickly things can change in MMA. Alexa Grasso went from a competitive champion against one of the best to ever do it, and is now a massive underdog against Natalia Silva.
There is good reason for Silva’s chalky number against the former champion. She’s 6-0 in the UFC and has fought solid competition on her way to the top. She sports a 91% takedown defense, 64% striking defense, and a +2.84 striking differential. Those are champion-level numbers.
The big news here is Grasso was recovering from a major injury and did not look her best in the rematch against Valentina Shevchenko before that. This will be a tough match from an MMA perspective, but Grasso’s boxing has always been her best chance at securing the victory.
Jose Aldo
1.48
2.70
Aiemann Zahabi
At first glance, the urge to jump on Jose Aldo will always be there. However, some respect has to be given to the Aiemann Zahabi name.
After losing two straight fights between 2017 and 2019, Zahabi took time away from the sport to improve his skills, and it paid off. Since returning in 2021, Zahabi is 5-0 with two first-round finishes. His output has been solid over three rounds, and his most recent fight against Pedro Muhoz was the most impressive. He landed 109 significant strikes en route to a unanimous decision.
If Aldo still used his leg kicks, this would be easier to predict. Zahabi uses movement with his strikes and has solid power. If Aldo can slow him down, that’s his best chance to land punches of his own while taking away his legs. Unfortunately, Aldo relies more on his defense and boxing to out-volume his opponent. There is a good chance this fight stays on the feet, and it will come down to who can make the most of the counters and land the bigger shots.
Valentina Shevchenko
2.24
1.67
Manon Fiorot
Valentina Shevchenko regained her champion status in a solid back-and-forth war with Grasso. Now, she gets her toughest challenger in a while with Manon Fiorot.
What stands out with Fiorot is that she does everything well. Her 93% takedown defense against the competition she’s faced is impressive. On the feet, she lands 6.26 strikes per minute and defends at a 68% clip.
The major difference between these two fighters is that Shevchenko tends to plant and throw while looking to wrestle, while Fiorot moves well and finds her spots. Her fight against Erin Blanchfield earned her a title shot because she avoided takedown threats and landed with conviction. 50-45 across the board against the best prospect in the division was more than enough to make her next in line.
We know Shevchenko is elite, but the betting line is a good indicator of how close this fight will be. The books are predicting that Shevchenko will struggle to impose her wrestling style and be forced to fight on the feet for five rounds. If that’s the case, we could be in for an absolute classic.
Belal Muhammad
1.52
2.60
Jack Della Maddalena
Belal Muhammad might be one of the most underrated champions in recent history. Yes, he doesn’t finish fights at an insane rate, but he’s good everywhere. In fact, he’s great in most facets of MMA. His boxing has improved, his wrestling is as imposing as anyone’s, and he has some of the best cardio we’ve ever seen.
The areas that stand out with Muhammad are his lack of submission prowess and ground control. If he were able to keep guys down and do real damage while looking for a finish, he would likely appease most of the disgruntled fans. Regardless, the Sean Brady performance was elite and the Leon Edwards saga made most people believers. Even as a champion, we’re seeing Muhammad evolve as a fighter, and he’s getting even better.
Enter Jack Della Maddalena. He is a great boxer with an exciting style and always seems to find a way to get the fight where he needs it to be. When he gets taken down, he finds a way back to his feet. When he’s against the fence, he has solid defense and will in close quarters. That’s where Maddalena will have most of his success. As Muhammad closes in for his takedowns, Maddalena’s combos and uppercuts could pose a serious threat. At range, he’s versatile and powerful, and if he can keep it standing, that is his best chance at walking away with gold.
UFC 315 BET BETS
Jeong Yeong Lee via Decision @ 4.20 (0.25 Units)
This is a number play. Jeong Yeong Lee is the slight favorite to win this fight, but Daniel Santos has never been finished. This should be a grueling, three-round battle where both guys end up slightly gassed due to the output.
Modestas Bukauskas to Win @ 2.00
Since returning from injury, Bukauskas is 4-1 with solid technical kickboxing. Ion Cutelaba won his last fight via arm triangle choke against Ibo Aslan and a split decision against UFC debutant Ivan Erslan before that. Bukaukas sports a 71% takedown defense, but has only lost one fight where he was taken down. He’s also never been taken down more than twice in a fight. If he can survive the early onslaught, he should be able to keep this fight standing and cruise to a sound decision win.
Charles Radke to Win @ 2.40 (0.5 Units)
Mike Malott is set to fight in front of his hometown Canadian crowd, but that might not be enough to put away Charles Radke. Looking at their UFC resumes, this line is far too wide. Radke is 3-1 in the UFC with a KO/TKO loss to Carlos Prates. Malott is 4-1 with a tough loss to Neil Magny. He’s very hittable, and his defensive stats stand out to me. He holds a 46% striking accuracy, 53% striking defense, and 16% takedown defense.
Alexa Grasso to Win @ 3.10 (0.25 Units)
Natalia Silva is a solid prospect turning into a contender. She’s been able to dominate UFC competition so far and now gets the former champion, Alexa Grasso. While she’s been able to outdo every opponent so far, Grasso is on a different level. She has elite boxing, her grappling is improving, and she tends to find ways to keep the fight standing. The distance striking of Silva could be the biggest problem, but Grasso has fought kickboxers before. If this fight stays on the feet, give me the more experienced former champion at three times our money.
Valentina Shevchenko to Win @ 2.20 (0.5 Units)
Manon Fiorot is one of the hardest fights for Valentina Shevchenko. The karate style with solid counters and great defense is championship-level skills. At the same time, Shevchenko has evolved into a great MMA fighter and has found ways to be successful in different areas of the fight. Despite the solid takedown defense, how long can Fiorot keep Shevchenko at bay? This is a massive step up in competition for Fiorot, and getting a good underdog price on Shevchenko is enough to take a chance on one of the best.
Sterling / Saint-Denis / Jasudavicius / Almakhan to Win @ 3.15
Navajo Sterling has been criticized for his UFC debut, but he still came away with a win. He’s a solid kickboxer from a great camp and should continue to improve with every fight. He looks to be in great shape and should do enough to come away with a victory.
Saint-Denis has been waiting to return, and he gets a Canadian journeyman on short notice. Kyle Prepolec is on his second UFC stint and comes in as a 7.75 underdog. It’s hard to see Saint-Denis losing this fight anywhere.
This one is the scariest leg, despite all the confidence people have in Jasudavicius. She’s a massive favorite against a former champion who happens to be the younger fighter. If things go south, this is a great spot to hedge the bet with a live wager on Andrade. Jasudavicius has a solid reach advantage, and if the fight hits the ground, Andrade always struggles from her back.
Almakhan’s striking should be enough to keep Katona guessing, and if he can avoid most of the takedown attempts, he should be able to win. Even though we’re in Canada, Katona’s home country, there’s an added edge with the UFC and judges trying to avoid scoring the ‘lay and pray’ style.
Violence Parlay: Malott-Radke / Bukauskas-Cutelaba / Stirling-Erslan Fight Doesn’t go the Distance @ 3.00 (0.5 Units)
What stands out in all three fights is that both fighters have a path to victory to end the fight. While some fighters are first-round or bust, the others should be able to take advantage as the fight goes on with some killer instinct. Let’s hope we get some violence to hit this parlay.
UFC 315 should be a fantastic card with a solid mix of high-end talent and up-and-coming prospects. These are usually the chalkier UFC cards, so tread lightly. We’ll be ready to go with our best bets for UFC 315 later in the week, so be sure to check back then.
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