Conor’s Comeback: McGregor and Holloway 2 Headlines UFC 329

With only Nazim Sadykhov disappointing us, we came out with +2.175 Units at UFC Baku after going 3-1 overall in best bets. We’ve been waiting to get back on a winning trail, and hopefully it starts with UFC Baku and continues into UFC 329.

UFC 329 has all the makings of a UFC card of the year. The matchups are fantastic, the name value is as good as it gets, and the potential for back-and-forth wars is high. Conor McGregor makes his long-awaited return to the UFC, and he takes on one of the biggest fan favorites in Max Holloway. In the co-main event, Paddy Pimblett hopes to make up for his loss to Justin Gaethje, as he takes on Benoit Saint-Denis in what should be a dark horse candidate for a lightweight title shot. 

With all the exciting fights on the docket, let’s get right into the UFC 329 main card breakdown, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets as we continue our hot streak into the Summer.

UFC 329 Main Card Breakdown

King Green

2.26

1.61

Terrance McKinney

Don’t look now, but King Green is on a three-fight win streak after losing to Mauricio Ruffy and Paddy Pimblett. The top-end of fighters can have their way with him, but when he moves down the pecking order, Green becomes the perfect gatekeeper. The skills are there, and his experience is second to none. He fights long, has wrestling in his back pocket, and finds ways to outwork his opponent to steal decisions. But he’s, once again, stepping up in competition this time around.

Terrance McKinney is arguably the most exciting fighter in the UFC. Win or lose, his fights are action-packed, and he’s never been to a decision. He’s 8-5 in the UFC, and most of his losses come from being outworked. All of his wins have come in the first round, and he has a solid mix of power and grappling. He has plenty of work to do in terms of durability and cardio, but he’s exactly what the UFC is looking for right now.

This will all come down to how long Green can last. If he’s able to weather the storm in the first round, his abil ity to be the more accurate striker will go a long way. The first round will be fireworks, and McKinney will be looking to finish this fight early. We’ve seen Green crumble in the past in similar situations, but this is one where the right gameplan can help him secure that fourth-straight victory. McKinney’s kill-or-be-killed style will always be risky against more experienced fighters who have been in the fire before, but it will take a lot of discipline from Green to avoid danger and force the fight into later rounds.    

Brandon Royval

2.80

1.45

Lone’er Kavanagh

Brandon Royval could be at the tail end of his career. There was a time when he looked like he was going to be moving his way up the flyweight ladder as a perennial title challenger, but his last two losses have been tough. He took a massive beating against Joshua Van, then he followed that up with a knockout loss to Manel Kape. Durability is now a massive question mark, and it was a big part of his high-pace, high-volume game. He does have good grappling, but he doesn’t wrestle at all, which makes his style fairly predictable.

Lone’er Kavanagh is a high-ranked prospect with one blemish on his record. After dominating the fight against Charles Johnson, he was knocked out in the second round. He followed that up with a career-best performance against Brandon Moreno, in which he was the quicker striker and a much better fighter. He hits hard, can throw with volume, and has a solid mix of speed and technical skills. He’s also shown some wrestling acumen that’s helped him control fights that are close on the feet. He averages at least one takedown per fight and holds an elite 94% takedown defense.    

Despite a five-inch height advantage, there is only a one-inch reach advantage for Royval. Kavanagh has a significant power edge, and he’s the much younger fighter. He should be able to deal with the grappling scrambles to keep the fight standing, and it’s tough to predict how much damage Royval can take after his previous two fights. In terms of paths to victory, Royval’s best chance is to weather the storm and pull off a later upset similar to Johnson’s. He could have a slight cardio advantage depending on the damage he takes, and that would be his best chance of taking over the fight.   

Cory Sandhagen

1.67

2.24

Mario Bautista

Cory Sandhagen always seems like he’s on the outside looking in, but he finally got his title shot against Merab Dvalishvili and came up short via decision. His losses are against elite fighters, and they’re always decisions. He’s never been knocked out and was subbed by Aljamain Sterling back in 2020. He’ll always be at the top of the rankings, but getting over that hump continues to be a problem. He’s good everywhere, but gets taken down a lot, and that always seems to be the deciding factor in his losses. He’s a great striker, can fight long, and mixes it up well. 

Mario Bautista lost to Umar Nurmagomedov last year, but it was his first loss since 2021. He’s 11-3 in the UFC and was riding a nine-fight win streak before the loss. He followed up the loss with a win over Vinicius Oliveira, where he dominated the grappling exchanges and finished the fight via submission. He’s a solid wrestler, and his footwork has improved. He’s been able to strike with some of the best fighters in the division and has relied heavily on his control time to steal fights.

This is actually a rematch from the first UFC On ESPN card, where Sandhagen submitted Bautista in the first round, becoming the only fighter to submit him. Bautista is a far better fighter now, but the footwork and volume on the feet will be the main difference. This will be a fight where Bautista should rely on his wrestling and find ways to do damage while winning minutes. Sandhagen’s path to victory is the same as usual: maintain distance, land the better shots, and be ready to lock up a quick submission if the fight hits the ground. He’s also hard to keep on the ground, which should make this fight competitive for as long as it lasts.     

Benoit Saint-Denis

1.67

2.24

Paddy Pimblett

Benoit Saint-Denis has been on the cusp of reaching the peak of the lightweight division; his losses to Dustin Poirier (knockout) and Renato Moicano (doctor stoppage) are the only blemishes holding him back. He’s the definition of a hunter. He’ll stand and bang if he needs to, but his grappling has proven to be effective at the highest level. In his last fight against Dan Hooker, he showcased his grappling skills by maintaining a dominant position and landing thunderous ground-and-pound. He’s finished four straight fights since the Moicano loss, including a submission win over Ruffy, and he looks hungry to continue his resurgence.

Paddy Pimblett is another hungry fighter after losing his title opportunity against Justin Gaethje. While the loss is aging well, it was his first defeat in the UFC, but he fared better than the previous champion, Ilia Topuria. Pimblett’s striking is a work in progress, but he’s aggressive, can take a beating, and has elite grappling. He has six bonuses in the UFC so far, and it’s a testament to how exciting his fights can be, win or lose. While there will always be criticism for his early strength of schedule, he’s made up for that over his last few fights, and his win against Michael Chandler was as dominant as can be. 

This fight means a lot in the lightweight division. Both fighters have been at the top of the food chain for some time, but getting over that last hump is the difference between being ranked in the top 10 and being champion. Saint-Denis should have a slight striking advantage, especially in terms of power, but Pimblett is hard to finish. In terms of grappling, we’ve seen Pimblett utilize it more against tougher competition, but it’s hard to say who will benefit more from those exchanges. The odds are close, but there’s something to be said for Pimblett’s improvement, and taking an underdog shot in what should be a close fight is intriguing.    

Conor McGregor

3.00

1.40

Max Holloway

Conor McGregor is back in the UFC. While his departure and layoff take away from his legacy, he’s still the fighter who put the UFC on the mainstream map for the newer generation. His rise to the top is unrivaled, and his ability to sell fights is second to none. From what we remember, McGregor is a precision-based striker with good power and relies heavily on counter-striking. In terms of cardio, durability, and well-roundedness, there are still questions, but his MMA striking has always been impressive. The fact is, he’s 10-4 in the UFC, and all four losses have come within his last five fights dating back to 2017.

Max Holloway is the people’s champion. He’s one of the most beloved fighters on the roster, and that comes from his style in the cage and his personality outside of it. He doesn’t need to sell his fights because fans know what they’re going to get. His volume and pressure are some of the best we’ve ever seen, and his durability, outside of the Topuria fight, has always been one of his best weapons. We’ve seen him rocked in the past, but his heart and ability to push himself are what make him so exciting. Charles Oliveira wanted nothing to do with that version of Holloway last time out, using his grappling for all five rounds to win the BMF title.

That’s one of the major reasons for this booking. Not only is it the perfect matchup for a Conor return, but the UFC surely doesn’t want to put Holloway in a position where he’s fighting against control time for five rounds. He’s a striker, and so is McGregor. This is one where you can’t count out McGregor early, but as the fight goes on, the experience, activeness and pressure on the Holloway side should be too much for McGregor, who has been away from action since 2021. If this fight goes all five rounds, we could be looking at one of the most aura-based fights we’ve ever seen.

UFC 329 Best Bets

2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units

2026 Record: 41-65-1, -5.34 Units

(Coming soon…)

UFC 329 could end up being the most stacked card of the year. Compared to the UFC White House card, UFC 329 isn’t just about the names but the matchups from top to bottom. Whether it be individual performances or back-and-forth wars, it wouldn’t be surprising to see every fight keep you on the edge of your seat. It will be hard to top this card for the rest of the year.

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