Well, we’re back down to Earth after UFC 330.
After an incredible five-week run, we have our first losing card in almost two months. It was a game of inches for a few of the bets, but others were just bad value reads. We got 3-5 in bets and went down -0.36 Units. We’re still sitting at +11.43 Units on the year, but we still have plenty of work to do.
The UFC heads to Sacramento for a main event between Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues. In the co-main event, Serghei Spivac takes on heavyweight title-hopeful Vitor Petrino. While the card isn’t stacked, there are plenty of exciting fights. Check out our main card breakdown, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Sacramento best bets.
UFC Sacramento Main Card Breakdown
Carli Judice
1.18
5.00
Jeisla Chaves
Carli Judice struggled early in her UFC career after coming off a split decision loss on Dana White’s Contender Series. After losing her debut via split decision to Gabriella Fernandes, she’s riding a three-fight win streak with two knockouts and two performance bonuses. She’s a high-volume striker with a crazy pace and has proven finishing ability.
Carli Judice MMA HIGHLIGHTS 2026 | Professional 5-2 Fighter & UFC Prospect | DWCS | Bayou FC
Jeisla Chaves is 7-0 overall, and her performance on Dana White’s Contender Series earned her a UFC contract. She won her UFC debut via split decision, but in both fights we’ve seen Chaves struggle on the feet and take a beating. She isn’t the most technical, but she’s shown solid heart and can turn any fight into a brawl.
This is a massive mismatch on paper. Judice should be the far better striker, and her finishing upside makes it even worse. Even though Chaves can turn this into a crazy brawl, Judice’s technical skill should be far too much on the feet. Chaves’ only path to victory could be getting the fight to the ground and eliminating Judice’s striking advantages. If this fight doesn’t hit the ground, Judice’s 9.32 significant strikes per minute at 50% striking accuracy should be far too much for Chaves.
Marquel Mederos
3.20
1.37
Mason Jones
Marquel Mederos is coming off a draw against Chris Padilla, but he’s undefeated in the UFC so far. He’s fought just four times since 2024, but hasn’t lost since 2022. He’s a solid striker who throws with accuracy, and his technical ability keeps him in the fight. He hasn’t shown much of a power threat, but his cardio is solid, and he can go hard for as long as the fight lasts.
Mason Jones is flying high since returning to the UFC. After a solid run in Cage Warriors, Jones has returned to the UFC and won three straight fights. He has two performance bonuses in back-to-back fights, and his most recent win over Axel Sola was one of the best fights of the year. He’s aggressive, throws with volume, and is well-rounded. His toughness keeps him in fights, and his overall skill gives him several ways to win.
Mason Jones Career Highlights!││Return of The Welshman!
This has the potential to be a great fight. While Mederos is a more technical striker who will pick his shots well, Jones will maintain a pace that’s hard to match. The striking exchanges should be competitive, but Jones has a significant power advantage. He is also the much better grappler, averaging over three takedowns per fight. With both strikers averaging well over five strikes per minute, this should be an entertaining fight with Jones having a solid edge as the better all-around fighter.
Reinier de Ridder
1.26
3.95
Roman Dolidze
Reinier de Ridder went from beating big names and entering the title conversation to losing two straight fights against Caio Borralho and Brendan Allen. There was a significant skill gap in those fights, and it was proof that De Ridder is suited for the top 10 realm of fights rather than the top five. He’s a fantastic grappler with solid clinch striking, but his cardio and durability have been concerns. At distance, he’s not the most technical and he struggles with accuracy and volume.
Roman Dolidze is in a similar position to De Ridder. He’s able to beat top-15 fighters, but has struggled against most fighters in the top five. He’s riding a two-fight losing streak against Christian Leroy Duncan and Anthony Hernandez, and they’re two perfect fights to see where Dolidze is lacking. He’s a solid grappler and maintains position well, but he struggles on the feet. He relies heavily on getting the fight to the ground and depends on control, but that’s been harder to accomplish against tougher competition.
In a fight where both fighters rely on control, clinch work, and ground games, the biggest edge has to go to De Ridder on the feet. He hits the body well, can land better at distance, and can use kicks to keep Dolidze at distance. Dolidze’s path to victory relies on weathering the storm and finding opportunities to force De Ridder to grapple. Even if De Ridder is the better grappler, getting him tired and forcing him to work for position is the best way to drain him. Dolidze has always been tough and fights with immense heart, and that could be his best chance to pull off the upset.
Serghei Spivac
2.42
1.58
Vitor Petrino
Serghei Spivac is another fighter who struggles with top-end talent, but he’s proven to be UFC-level. After losing two straight to Jailton Almeida and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, he beat Ante Delija last time out. He’s a solid grappler who uses his size well, which opens the door to finding submissions or landing heavy ground and pound. His durability has been questionable in the past, but his only two knockout losses since 2020 are against Ciryl Gane and Tom Aspinall.
Vitor Petrino continues to improve with every passing fight. After getting caught by Anthony Smith in an early submission and getting finished in the third round against Dustin Jacoby, He’s riding a three-fight win streak against much lesser competition. His last fight against Steven Asplund was a solid performance. He dealt with the high-volume striking well and did far more damage over three rounds. He was technical, picked his shots well, and forced Asplund to enter deep waters. The power is real, the cardio and durability are far better at heavyweight, and he looks ready to take on much better competition.
Spivac is Petrino’s first taste of higher-level UFC heavyweights. He will be the much better striker and will have a significant power advantage, but he will need to avoid the ground. Spivac’s best path to victory is to avoid the dangerous striking game at all costs and force Petrino to fight for position against the fence and on the ground. The more he makes Petrino work, the more drained he will be, and it’ll be a lot easier to deal with the power threat on the feet. It’s hard to see Spivac winning, but there is a clear path to victory if he can pull it off.
Anthony Hernandez
1.60
2.40
Gregory Rodrigues
Anthony Hernandez was the talk of the town in 2025. He was riding an eight-fight win streak and got all the hype entering the title picture. He fought Sean Strickland to kick off 2026, and it was a lousy performance. He didn’t attempt many takedowns and was trying to strike with one of the best technical strikers in the division. Strickland put on a masterclass and finished the fight in the third round. Hernandez is a fantastic MMA wrestler with relentless pace and incredible cardio, but he paid the price against Strickland for not fighting to his strengths.
Gregory Rodrigues is a massive fan favorite for his style and exciting fights. After losing to Jared Cannonier, Rodrigues ripped off three straight wins and is coming off a massive first-round knockout win over Bruno Ferreira. Not only was that a revenge fight, but his striking looked even better, and his power has become a serious threat. He came into the UFC as an elite grappler, but his development as a striker makes him a dangerous fighter on the feet. His chin, durability, and cardio are always concerns, and it’s safe to say that it’s not going to get much better at this point in his career.
There are clear gaps between Hernandez and Rodrigues, but it’s an interesting matchup. Hernandez is susceptible to body strikes, and if he can’t get the fight to the ground, Rodrigues’ power edge is a serious problem. This fight is one of those classic matchups where Rodrigues has some advantages in the early rounds, but if he can’t finish, Hernandez will take over in the championship rounds. Rodrigues should attack the body any chance he gets, and come back up top with big power shots. While Hernandez’s wrestling could be the difference later in the fight, it will be interesting to see if he can find a submission. Rodrigues has never been submitted, but his durability and cardio are the main reasons for his losses. There’s a reason the betting line doesn’t massively favour Hernandez, but he has significant upside if this fight makes it past the first couple of rounds.
UFC Sacramento Best Bets
2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
2026 Record: 64-76-1, +11.43 Units
(Coming Soon…)
Even though this card doesn’t carry significant name value, there are some entertaining fights from top to bottom. Most fighters on this card are in a ‘prove yourself’ situation, and that always makes for exciting fights. Expect plenty of fireworks from an underrated card in Sacramento.
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