UFC Perth could have been a massive turnaround if Tai Tuivasa had put in the work during training camp. He was unable to defend any takedowns and had an embarrassing showing. Even with that blemish, we come away with +2.425 Units at UFC Perth and now sit at -7.495 Units. With plenty of work still to do, we now look at UFC 328 to continue our winning ways.
UFC 328 is one of the better cards of the year so far. There are two title fights along with big-name prospects and long-time veterans looking to put on a show in New Jersey. Khamzat Chimaev will defend the UFC middleweight title against Sean Strickland, while Joshua Van will defend his UFC flyweight title against Tatsuro Taira. Let’s break down the main card and look at some of the best bets for UFC 328.
UFC 328 Main Card Breakdown
King Green
1.27
3.85
Jeremy Stephens
King Green is riding a two-fight win streak, where he put on a show in his last fight against Daniel Zellhuber. He used his wrestling, distant striking, and experience to supplant a struggling prospect. He has almost 30 UFC fights and has only lost to high-level fighters. The biggest knock on Green is that when he loses, he loses badly. He’s been finished in all five of his last five losses, but it’s mostly against powerful strikers or elite grapplers. At 38, he’s been able to maintain his volume and accuracy. He’s now looking to win three straight fights for the first time since 2020.
Jeremy Stephens has spent the last three years in Bare Knuckle Boxing but returned to the UFC last year, losing to Mason Jones. He’s won one fight since 2018 and has looked like a shell of himself since his three-fight win streak eight years ago. Regardless of his record, Stephens is as tough as they get. He’s hard to finish, can take a serious beating, and still packs a punch.
Green is going to fight on the outside and try to maintain his distance. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him employ some of his wrestling again to win points on the scorecards. The biggest issue in this fight for Green is keeping his hands too low. He tries to roll with the punches, which forces him to take big shots. Stephens has solid boxing and Muay Thai, which creates wild exchanges in the pocket. If Green lets his guard down and tries to roll with too many punches, it would not be surprising to see Stephens catch him. He’s been knocked out by powerful strikers in the past, and that looks like Stephens’ best path to victory. If Stephens is unable to get in the tight range, Green should be able to ride out a decision victory.
Sean Brady
1.57
2.45
Joaquin Buckley
Sean Brady ended his four-fight win streak with a knockout loss to Michael Morales last year. His performance against Leon Edwards was the most impressive of his career, but Edwards has been on a decline since losing the belt. For how long Brady has been around, he’s only fought in the UFC 10 times and finished four times via submission. He’s a grapple-first fighter who isn’t afraid to eat punches to secure a takedown. His striking is still a work in progress, but he lands with 55% accuracy with 3.96 strikes per minute and defends at a 59% clip.
Joaquin Buckley was flying high with five straight wins, but lost to Kamaru Usman last year. It was a wrestling lesson where he was taken down four times for almost 13 minutes of control time. He landed just three significant strikes in the first two rounds, but found ways to bounce back as the fight went on. He’s a great striker with plenty of power, but he’s had some growing pains on the way to the top. He’s been knocked out in three of his five UFC losses, but he hasn’t been finished since 2022.
This is a classic grappler vs. striker battle. Brady will be spamming takedowns to avoid a back-and-forth brawl, while Buckley will try to keep the fight standing to unleash his lethal kickboxing. Brady has taken plenty of damage in fights where he can’t secure takedowns, and Buckley has just a 72% takedown defense. The four-inch reach advantage should be solid for Buckley. He’ll be able to stay at range, avoid getting in close, and use his range and long combinations to do more damage. If Buckley can’t defend the takedowns, Brady could make this look easy. If the fight stays standing, Buckley has a massive advantage on the feet, and it would take a massive showing from Brady to pull off the victory.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
2.40
1.60
Alexander Volkov
Waldo Cortes-Acosta has been on an absolute tear. After losing to Sergei Pavlovich, He’s finished all three fights and earned two bonuses. He’s 10-2 in the UFC, 17-2 overall, and has looked like a real threat in the heavyweight division. What makes him so good is his boxing. Not only has he adapted well to MMA, but he’s able to manage distance, maintain a good pace, and find ways to land the better shots. Even more impressive, he’s implemented a solid wrestling game when needed, and it’s helped him develop a strong MMA base. He’s likely a few wins away from entering the heavyweight title picture.
Alexander Volkov may be 37 years old, but he’s a great example of how age isn’t really a factor in the heavyweight division. Since 2020, his only losses are to Ciryl Gane twice and Tom Aspinall, but some would say he did enough to beat Gane the second time they fought. He won a split decision against Jailton Almeida last time out, and even though he was taken down several times, he was the more active fighter from the bottom and made the most of his opportunities. He’s a long and accurate kickboxer with an underrated ground game. His ability to maintain distance is elite, and it allows him to work behind a good jab while following it up with solid shots.
Cortes-Acosta presents a real problem for Volkov. He also maintains distance well and works behind a solid jab. His boxing experience allows him to use footwork and accuracy to win striking exchanges, and his cardio helps him maintain a solid pace for as long as the fight lasts. Volkov, though, is just as good, if not better, from range. He can employ a kicking game to stay at a safe distance, and his underrated ground game gives him an upper hand in this fight. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him go for takedowns to test Waldo-Acosta’s grappling. While he is a big favorite, Waldo-Acosta could make this a close fight if he avoids the ground and uses his boxing to land the better shots on the feet.
Joshua Van
2.40
1.60
Tatsuro Taira
Even though Joshua Van is the current flyweight champion, he’s still young. His rise to the top came quickly, and it’s his exciting style and relentless pace that earned him a title shot after a five-fight win streak. He won the title after Alexandre Pantoja suffered an arm injury, and he’s been heavily criticized for his attitude after winning the belt. His performance against Brandon Royval was the best of his career. He was able to match the pace, land the better shots, and put on an absolute boxing clinic. The glaring loss in his UFC career was his knockout loss to Charles Johnson. He continues to eat heavy shots and has been knocked down a few times.
Tatsuro Taira lost a split decision to Royval, but he performed well and was just a step behind in the striking exchanges. Since then, we’ve seen him improve drastically on the feet, and his grappling is elite. He’s tenacious with his takedowns, and once he gets you down, it’s hard to get back up. Some have argued that his knockout win over Brandon Moreno was a little premature, but he was dominating the fight and looked fantastic. He’s 8-1 in the UFC, 18-1 overall, and looks like a perennial top-five flyweight for years to come.
This is another striker vs. grappler showdown. Van should be the better boxer, and Taira is definitely the better grappler. The thing about this fight is Taira’s striking has gotten better, and we still haven’t seen much grappling from Van. If Taira can land some big shots and set up his takedowns, he could be in the front seat for as long as the fight lasts. Van will need to defend takedowns, attack the body, and look for the finishing blow. Taira’s chin has been tested, and he recovers well. Van, on the other hand, eats plenty of shots and sometimes doesn’t handle them as well. This is an elite fight, but there is a good reason for Taira carrying a heavy favorite price tag. He’s the better grappler, with improved striking, and has proven to be as durable as anyone. This will be fireworks for as long as it lasts.
Khamzat Chimaev
1.17
5.25
Sean Strickland
Khamzat Chimaev hasn’t fought much in the UFC, but when he does, he’s looked more dominant with every fight. He’s been criticized for his Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman fights, but outside of that, he’s been lights out. His win over Robert Whittaker was truly special. He got the takedown fairly easily, then face cranked Whittaker to the point where he shattered his jaw. The overall strength needed for that, and to do it to another high-level UFC fighter, is downright insane. He got his title shot against Dricus Du Plessis after that. While it wasn’t the most exciting fight, it was the most dominant we’ve seen a grappler in a long time. Du Plessis had no answer and spent most of the fight on his back. Chimaev won the title and now gets Sean Strickland.
For all his antics, Strickland is as elite as they come. His defensive boxing is solid, he has one of the best jabs in the UFC, and his cardio is hard to match. His fights aren’t violent, nor are they reckless, but they are tactical and high-paced. His losses to Du Plessis stand out the most, but his win over Anthony Hernandez was the most impressive. His gameplan was solid, Hernandez failed to record any real takedowns, and Strickland finished the fight in the third round. He was dominant. He attacked the body well, as anyone who fights Hernandez should, and made the most of any openings he could create. That’s just what you get with Strickland: a sound performance with solid in-cage IQ and the ability to go five rounds with anyone.
Continuing the striker and grappler matchups, this is another one. Strickland has underrated grappling but never uses it. Chimaev has also improved a lot on the feet, but his wrestling could be the best in the UFC right now. His strength and technique are a deadly combination, and we’ve seen him dominate fighters as he continues to develop as a pound-for-pound great. We know what his gameplan is, and he’s looking for the kill against Strickland. The big question here is, can Strickland avoid the takedowns and work behind his jab for five rounds? This will be one of the hardest tasks in the UFC right now, and the coolest part about this fight is if Chimaev finishes Strickland and moves up to light heavyweight, he’s on the way to superstar status and pound-for-pound
UFC 328 Best Bets
- 2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
- 2026 Record: 27-46, -7.495 Units
Brady-Buckley Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance @ 1.80
Brady will be looking for a submission, while Buckley will go hard for the knockout. Brady is relentless with the takedowns, but he’s taken plenty of damage while looking for his grappling spots. If Buckley can keep the fight standing, we’ve seen Brady struggle against plenty of guys, and if he loses this one, chances are he’s getting finished.
Alexander Volkov to Win @ 1.70
We’re getting some value on Volkov after the public took Waldo-Acosta. This is a close fight, but the distance management, the added kicking game, and the sneaky grappling are the reasons that Volkov stands out here. We mentioned his only losses in the last six years, and Waldo-Acosta is just not on that level yet.
Pat Sabatini ML / Yaroslav Amosov ML Parlay @ 2.30
Pat Sabatini is a pretty big favorite. The thing is, he isn’t a great striker. William Gomis has good footwork and is a technical striker, but he’s been taken down a bunch in his career by much lesser guys. I expect Sabatini to weather any storm and be able to find his takedowns, especially as the fight goes on.
Yaroslav Amosov is an elite fighter. He looked injured in his only loss to Jason Jackson, but he has looked incredible ever since. He’s a little undersized, but Joel Alvarez doesn’t have the big power needed to keep Amosov from searching for takedowns. Alvarez also likes working from his back, which opens the door to accepting the bottom position. Amosov has great control, solid wrestling, and submission skills. This is a good opportunity to take on a championship-level fighter against good competition.
Ateba Gautier in Round 1 / Baysangur Susurkaev to Finish Parlay @ 2.70
Ateba Gautier needs to recover from his previous fight, and this is a good opportunity to start fast and look for a finish. The power should be here, and he needs to get it done quickly.
Baysangur Susurkaev doesn’t start fast, but over the course of the first two rounds, he finds a way to end the fight. He’s getting someone who is tough, but will slow down if he keeps eating shots. This could be a knockout or submission win.
Pat Sabatini to Win via Submission @ 3.50 (0.5 Units)
Sabatini’s best path to victory is scoring takedowns and hunting for the submission. With him being a 1.40 favorite, it makes sense to take a chance on him locking up the submission.
UFC 328 is a stacked card. We’re getting two title fights and plenty of exciting action with a solid mix of prospects and veterans. While it seems tough to find value, as is the case with most UFC cards these days, we’re hoping to continue our win streak with some of the best betting spots we can find. Let’s hope for another winning card as we look to turn things around in 2026.
Big Money Parlay:
Sabatini to Win / Taira to Win / Amasov to Win / Ochoa to Win / Dawson to Win Parlay @ 9.33 (0.25 Units)
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