UFC 311 Best Bets and Main Card Breakdown

UFC 311 Best Bets and Main Card Breakdown

UFC 311 is here, but it doesn’t come without bad news. Arman Tsarukyan is no longer fighting Islam Makhachev for the UFC lightweight title and will be replaced by Renato Moicano.

In the other title fight, Merab Dvalishvili defends his UFC bantamweight belt against Umar Nurmagomedov, the newest member of the Khabib Nurmagomedov family to hit the big stage. 

With Moicano competing in the main event, Beneil Dariush confirmed via Instagram that he will no longer be on the card. 

The rest of the main card is in tact and still looks good. Here’s a look at the new-look UFC 311 main card.

Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano

Well, sometimes, that’s just how this sport goes. On the cusp of watching one of the most anticipated rematches in recent history, an injury forces Tsarukyan to pull out of the fight and Moicano steps in after weighing in at the championship weight level. 

Moicano has to make this a dog fight and stay on the feet. Chances are, despite his solid background in BJJ and his top control, he will not have success on the ground. Keeping it standing, using long and powerful strikes is the best way to go. He does have some power, but the biggest thing is volume. To keep Makhachev from getting comfortable, you have to push the pace and keep him guessing. 

Makhachev’s improved striking makes this an even tougher fight for Moicano. It will be a battle on the feet and Moicano bruises easily. He has plenty of scar tissue and if Makachev gets any top control, the ground and pound could be finishing worthy. As of now, there is only a moneyline number and there’s simply no balue on Makhachev at -1000. If, for any reason, Moicano starts to have success, you can either wait for the Makhachev line to improve on live markets or take a shot on the underdog. Makhachev’s finishing line remains to be seen.

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Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Is Merab Dvalishvili that good of a wrestler? Some would argue no, but he’s a cardio machine. His ability to push the pace is second to none, and he finds ways to win. He’s a lot better on the feet, in terms of footwork and movement, and finds ways to get in clinch range to do his best work. 

The thing about this fight is Umar Nurmagomedov has elite Sambo-style wrestling and manages distance well. Even though the size difference isn’t much, Nurmagomedov strikes well at a distance and can manage the range well. Dvalishvili will try to get in close and if he gets frustrated, he will start to force it. In those moments, Nurmagomedov could can take advantage.. 

Nurmagomedov looked incredible against Cory Sandhagen. That was a telling fight because Sandhagen came in as a great striker but stayed out of dangerous positions on the ground. He was forced to be competitive on the feet and he did just that. Even though he was 5 for 13 in takedowns, he landed more significant strikes, especially to the head. 

Looking at the Sean O’Malley fight, Dvalishvilli was the perfect matchup. He had better cardio, more pressure, and relentless wrestling to dominate. This will not be the same experience, and there’s good reason he was trying to avoid Nurmagomedov. This is a tough matchup, especially after the O’Malley fight. Stylistically, it’s by far the hardest fight for Dvalishvili in the division.

Given Nurmagomedov’s skill-set, it’s hard to side with Dvalishvili here. If the fight stays standing, Nurmagomedov should have the advantage, and it’s hard to see him getting dominated on the ground. 

Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill

There are plenty of implications in this one. If Jiri Prochazka wins, he’s looking at the top of the division again and likely gets some kind of a title eliminator or title shot depending on Alex Pereira’s next move. The same can be said for Jamahal Hill too. Both guys suffered devastating losses to the champion and are hungry for a fresh start at UFC 311.

This fight has been even on the betting lines, but Hill is gaining momentum. The more you study Prochazka’s style, the more reluctant you become to put your money behind him. He keeps his hands low and has paid the price on several occasions. He takes far too much damage and against a powerful striker like Hill, it’s a dangerous look. Prochazka is resilient, though, and he showed that against Aleksandar Rakic. 

Hill is in much better shape. He didn’t look like himself against Pereira and has been vocal about his desire to get another chance. His cardio has been good in previous fights. If this fight stays standing, he should have an upper hand as the fight progresses. He’s a good boxer but will be open for low kicks and Prochazka could look to wrestle to get out of harm’s way. 

With Prochazka’s style and dependency on the striking game, Hill is the better choice to win this fight. You can still get Hill to Win at 1.74 (-134), but anything lower than 1.70 (-142) is not as worth it, especially since this fight opened with Hill as a 2.45 (+145) underdog. The value on Hill is almost gone, so get in quick.

Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

Kevin Holland welcomes newcomer Reinier de Ridder after the Dutchman won his UFC debut. While it was nothing too impressive, he came away with a win against a tough veteran. This time, though, it will be a bit harder to find his spots late in the fight. 

Holland has a tendency to fight to his opponent’s level, but it’s worked out for him in the past. He doe his best work against older veterans lacking speed, or less experienced strikers who lean towards the wrestling and grappling style. 

That’s what makes this fight the hardest to call, and the line shows it. Bettling lines wise, this is the most event fight on the card and it comes down to how you see this fight playing out. De Ridder will need to not only find ways to take the fight to the ground, but keep it there. His best chance is dominating the grappling and threating submissions. 

Holland has solid grappling too, but the advantages should be on the feet. He’ll be the smaller guy, but the speed and creativity on the feet is not something to play with. If de Ridder struggles to get this fight to the late in the fight, Holland could find the opportunity to finish the fight via strikes. 

Originally, there were several more bets to consider on this card, but with the shake-up in the main event, the value is minimal. To recap, Hill to Win at 1.74 (-134) looks like the best value remaining and you have to move quickly given the line movement. Enjoy the fights and best of luck with all your bets!

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