Well, the bleeding continues. Decisions and lackluster performances from favorites at UFC Vegas 116 cost us. Plenty of fighters, including Julia Polastri, took their foot off the gas and didn’t execute the way they normally do late in fights. With the level of fighters currently in the UFC, it’s becoming even more important to do the right homework to find the best betting spots. We’re down -9.92 Units so far this year, and we have our work cut out for us heading into UFC Perth.
UFC Perth features a solid main event between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Pratos. Both fighters are exciting strikers, and this has fight of the night written all over it. While the rest of the card doesn’t really compare to the main event, we’re getting a solid prospect showcase spot with Quillan Salkilld taking on Beneil Dariush in the co-main event. Let’s take a look at the rest of the main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our UFC Perth best bets as we try to get back on track.
UFC Perth Main Card Breakdown
Tai Tuivasa
1.52
2.60
Louis Sutherland
Tai Tuivasa is in a tough spot. He’s lost six straight since 2022 and is coming off a winnable fight where he just couldn’t do enough in the later rounds. The one thing that stands out about his record is that many of his losses are to solid, technical strikers. The good news for him is that he’s gone three rounds in his last two fights, despite being exhausted, but it’s an absolute positive in the heavyweight division. He has good boxing, hits hard, but needs to pace himself and keep fights on the feet.
Louis Sutherland is getting a UFC opportunity with minimal experience, and it shows. He’s 0-2 so far, and only has 15 career fights. The biggest takeaway from his fights is that after a few bursts in the first round, he fades. Valter Walker was able to lock up a heel hook, and Brando Pericic was able to weather the storm and knock him out in under two minutes. Looking at his record, the quality of opponents is incredibly low. He’s shown some power in his fights, but it’s hard to trust him against regional opponents. If he’s unable to pace himself better, every fight will be hard at the UFC level.
Sutherland’s best chance is to get a takedown as early as possible. Tuivasa has been fairly durable, but once he’s on his bad side, he struggles to get up right away. Sutherland is a big heavyweight and should be able to keep him down for long enough to land some solid ground and pound. The biggest issue is if he doesn’t get the takedown, and it’s crazy to say this, but Tuivasa should be the far fresher fighter. With Tuivasa’s boxing edge and ability to last three rounds, it’s hard to see anything happening outside of a Tuivasa finish. However, he’s disappointed in the past, and it’s hard to trust him based on previous fights.
Shamil Gaziev
2.10
1.76
Brando Pericic
Shamil Gaziev is already 36 and hasn’t been very active. He’s 14-2 overall and lost his last fight to Waldo Cortes-Acosta via knockout in the first round. It was the first time he was actually finished via strikes, but Jairzinho Rozenstruik came close to finishing him as well before Gaziev decided not to continue. He has a good mix of striking and grappling, but he looks slower every fight and has only beaten the lowest level of UFC competition.
Brando Pericic is a great athlete and is becoming a better fighter with every passing fight. He’s only 6-1 overall, but he’s already 2-0 in the UFC. He has potential, at just 31 years old, and the UFC is desperate for heavyweight talent. He’s finished both his UFC fights in the first round, but he did look a little wild against Sutherland. With heavyweights, there are always questions surrounding their cardio, but Pericic, having a rugby background, should have the leg up on most of the UFC heavyweights.
Gaziev, despite being more experienced, hasn’t given fans anything to get hyped about. He’s lost against the two best fighters he’s ever faced, and his wins are not that impressive. His best chance is to use his wrestling and see if Pericic has the skills to get out from the bottom. If he’s unable to get this to the ground, Pericic’s forward pressure and brawling style will likely smother Gaziev before he gets anything going. Given Gaziev’s cardio issues as well, this seems like a good fight for Pericic to make a mark in the UFC.
Tim Elliot
3.60
1.30
Steve Erceg
Tim Elliot surprised everyone with his performance last August. He submitted Kai Asakura in a performance of the night. He’s an unpredictable striker with solid experience and stays competitive against almost anyone. He’s actually 4-1 in his last five UFC fights and finished two via submission. He hasn’t been the most active fighter in the last five years, but he’s been able to win the right fights and continues to be a tough puzzle to solve.
Steve Erceg made a name for himself in a tough showing against Alexandre Pantoja for the UFC flyweight title. He followed that up with two losses to Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno. His striking was a little exposed, and his grappling was a non-factor against tougher competition. Last time out, he beat Ode Osbourne via decision, but Osbourne had some moments in that fight as well. A lot was expected of Erceg after his title fight, but he hasn’t been able to live up to the hype ever since.
While this looks like a solid underdog spot, Erceg should be a good enough striker to keep Elliot at bay. Elliot doesn’t respond well to getting boxed up early, and it would take one of his classic comebacks to take over this fight. His best path to victory is to try to wrestle and look for a submission, but Erceg has yet to be submitted in his UFC career, and Elliot doesn’t have the power to finish on the feet. Erceg has a two-inch reach advantage and will try to distance strike to secure the victory, but his 62% takedown defense is a glaring hole against Elliot. It will be interesting to see if Elliot can get this fight to the ground, because if he can, he has a solid shot at winning the fight.
Beneil Dariush
4.50
1.21
Quillan Salkilld
Beneil Dariush is on the tail end of his UFC career. Even though he beat Renato Moicano last year, he’s lost three of his last four and has been finished in the first round in all of his losses. The big question with Dariush is his chin. He was laid out clean against Benoit Saint-Denis and hasn’t done well against powerful strikers. Dariush went on a crazy run starting in 2018, but after losing to Charles Oliveira, he just hasn’t been the same. He’s an elite grappler and is a solid striker as well, but he hasn’t been able to showcase his skills due to his durability issues.
Quillan Salkilld is well on his way to becoming a household name in the UFC. Even though he only has 12 career fights, He’s 4-0 in the UFC after winning the Eternal MMA title and winning his Dana White Contender Series fight against Gauge Young. He’s finished three of his last four wins and submitted Jamie Mullarkey last time out. He also has a solid mix of grappling and striking, and his ability to pick his shots on the feet makes him a dangerous striker early in the fight. Since losing his MMA debut, Salkilld has ripped off 11 straight wins.
Quillan Salkilld Head Kick-KO Win:
Dariush has a very basic path to victory. Avoid the early onslaught and take the fight to the ground. He should be the better grappler with far better experience, and his ability to last all three rounds has been impressive when it gets there. Salkilld needs to go forward with intent right off the bat. Make Dariush uncomfortable, look for the big shots, and hope to knock him out. If he’s not able to finish the fight early, this fight could get interesting with Dariush being the better grappler. If Dariush survives the first round, it would not be surprising to see him go on to win the fight.
Jack Della Maddalena
2.02
1.81
Carlos Prates
Jack Della Maddalena had the unfortunate experience of fighting Islam Makhachev last time out. It was a grappling clinic, and he couldn’t get anything going. Before that, he put on an absolute show against Belal Muhammad and earned himself the title. He was on an impressive run before the Makhachev fight, and it’s his boxing that stands out the most. He had solid footwork, great combinations, and impressive cardio, especially for his output. He also maintains a 63% striking defense, which is elite given his level of competition. After coming off a loss where he was defending takedowns for most of the fight, he should be excited to get into an absolute brawl.
Carlos Prates will welcome that brawl. He makes up for a lack of volume with elite precision. Over the course of his career, he’s shown he can finish you with almost anything. Body kicks, flying knees, liver shots, you name it. His recent fight against Leon Edwards was the perfect example of maintaining poise, picking your shots, and making the most of your opportunities. He’s on the road to a title shot, and with a win, he should be the next man up to fight for a belt.
This is an elite matchup. It’s one of the best boxers in the UFC against one of the best Muay Thai fighters. Prates has a five-inch reach advantage, which could be a major difference with Maddalena fighting for boxing range. Against Ian Garry, Prates showed that footwork and proper defense are one way to negate his power and ability to line up big power shots. Maddalena has the footwork, cardio, and durability to present a real problem for Prates. If Maddalena can’t put it on Prates early and take away some of that power, we also saw Prates turn it up late against Garry, which won him the fifth round. This fight will come down to who finds the early success and can carry it into the later rounds.
UFC Perth Best Bets
2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
2026 Record: 25-43, -9.92 Units
(Coming soon…)
UFC Perth is a solid mix of lesser-known prospects, streaking up-and-comers, and bona fide contenders. Maddalena and Prates should put on a show, while Salkilld is a solid fighter looking to move up the ranks. With a few exciting fights throughout the card, UFC Perth should make up for the last few duds, and we’ll do our absolute best to find the best bets to make some money back.
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