After starting the first two weeks of this article on a heater, UFC London was a letdown. However, the good news is that we were smart with our unit sizing and only lost 1.5 units on Leon Edwards, Jan Blachowicz, and the parlay. While Edwards was just a bad look, Blachowicz was close to pulling it off, and we went two of three on the parlay with Guram Kutadeladze failing to secure the victory.
We hit our full unit bet on Chris Padilla, which helped save the day. Overall, we go -0.58 units for UFC London but are still up +3.78 units over the past three weeks.
This weekend, the UFC travels to Mexico City for another card at high elevation. The UFC has plenty of Mexican talent to showcase on home soil, and they rarely disappoint. Hopefully, we can right the ship after a down weekend. Let’s take a look at the main card for UFC Mexico.
MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN
Brandon Moreno
1.40
3.00
Steve Erceg
Brandon Moreno 1.40 vs. Steve Erceg 3.00
Brandon Moreno recovered nicely after dropping two straight fights. He gave Amir Albazi a run for his money and came out on top with one of his better performances since the Deiveson Figueiredo saga. He gets Steve Erceg next, and one must wonder if this is another example of ‘too much too soon’.
Erceg went 3-0 against low-end flyweight talent before getting Alexandre Pantoja for the belt and Kai Kara-France. Does it make sense for his tune-up fight to be with Moreno? Not only is it surprising that the UFC is taking a chance on him going 0-3 in his last three, but taking on a perennial title challenger coming off his best win in a while makes no sense. Erceg needs to be ready for heavy volume and crazy scrambles if he hopes to steal a victory against Moreno.
Manuel Torres
1.83
2.00
Drew Dober
Manuel Torres 1.83 vs. Drew Dober 2.00
Is Drew Dober on his way out? He’s been in some absolute wars and has fought the best talent the UFC has to offer. He’s 1-3 in his last four fights but continues to fight the best fighters. Manuel Torres is next up and is coming off a loss to Ignacio Bahamondes. Before that, Torres was 3-0 in the UFC after his Dana White Contender Series win.
This fight will end in the first round or be an absolute war for three rounds. Dober is a little underrated here because if he survives the first round, his ability to find his range and pick his shots allows him to stay in heavy striking fights. This could be a fight where we consider a bet later in the week. Stay tuned.
Kelvin Gastelum
3.45
1.32
Joe Pyfer
Kelvin Gastelum 3.45 vs. Joe Pyfer 1.32
Kelvin Gastelum is someone you simply can’t trust with your money. As a fighter, he’s entertaining and skilled, but his decision-making outside and inside the cage has hindered his career tremendously. While the diet has been a main reason he can’t stay at welterweight, he’s been hit or miss at middleweight and now gets the powerful Joe Pyfer.
It’s also interesting that Pyfer, Sean Brady’s training partner, is next up when Gastelum’s last loss was to Brady in 2023. He’s 4-6 in his last 10 fights and won his most recent bout against Daniel Rodriguez. The fight was supposed to be at 170 but somehow, some way, the fight took place at middleweight. With all that said, Pyfer has plenty on his side going into this fight, and it’s hard to bet against him against Gastelum.
Raul Rosas Jr.
1.22
4.25
Vince Morales
Raul Rosas Jr. 1.22 vs. Vince Morales 4.25
This is the definition of a tune-up fight. Raul Rosas Jr. hasn’t lost since 2023 against Christian Rodriguez and is riding a three-fight win streak. Vince Morales, on the other hand, is 0-2 in his last two fights and is being fed to the dogs in Mexico. While the fight could end up being competitive, the UFC has invested so much in Rosas Jr. and this is an example where they are doing everything they can to build on his win streak.
Morales just lost to Elijah Smith in February and suffered significant damage. This fight barely makes sense in terms of competitiveness and where they are at in their careers, but the UFC wants to build Rosas Jr. into a star and winning in Mexico would help their cause.
David Martinez
1.26
3.80
Saimon Oliveira
David Martinez 1.26 vs. Saimon Oliveira 3.80
We have what looks like another setup fight for the debuting David Martinez. After beating Xavier Franklin on Dana White’s Contender Series, Martinez gets his first fight in Mexico against Saimon Oliveira. Martinez is riding a seven-fight win streak and hasn’t lost since a 2021 split decision. He has solid power and will use his striking to keep the fight standing.
Oliveira is 0-2 since 2022 after winning his Dana White Contender Series fight in 2021. He’s a solid grappler with several submission wins, but the striking difference here is key. Martinez seems to have a massive upper hand, and if they avoid the ground, he should be able to use this fight to showcase his skills.
Ronaldo Rodriguez
1.67
2.25
Kevin Borjas
Ronaldo Rodriguez 1.67 vs. Kevin Borjas 2.25
Ronaldo Rodriguez and Kevin Borjas should throw down to open the main card. Rodriguez has become a fan favorite over his last two fights and promises to make a splash in Mexico. He’s 2-0 in the UFC after debuting against Denys Bondar and beating Ode Osbourne last time out. His durability is unquestionable, and he’s the right amount of chaos for the flyweight division.
Kevin Borjas is on the hot seat after going 0-2 in his last two fights. In his defense, losing your only two UFC fights to Joshua Van and Alessandro Costa is not that bad. He has a chance to right the ship against Rodriguez, but being able to three rounds at a high pace will be the main issue. Rodriguez will be excited to fight in Mexico, and it seems like he should get the job done with his versatility and durability.
UFC MEXICO BEST BETS
Kelvin Gastelum
1.83
1.32
Joe Pyfer
Joe Pyfer to Finish @ 2.20
Kelvin Gastelum has been struggling with weight and upper-tier talent. Joe Pyfer learned a valuable lesson against Jack Hermansson and will pace himself in a fight where he’ll have plenty of opportunities to finish the fight. Interestingly, even with the power on the feet, Pyfer has an underrated ground game and could finish the fight from the position on the ground. Gastelum has been caught in the past due to poor decision-making. The younger and bigger fighter at plus money is a solid look.
Manuel Torres
3.45
2.00
Drew Dober
Manuel Torres to Win @ 2.00
The big reason we’ll hop on this one is Torres has become the underdog. Dober has been heavily tested in his last few fights and it seems like the damage has caught up with him. He’s been finished by guys like Matt Frevola, meaning the right strike at the right time is doing plenty of damage on the aging veteran. Torres should have every opportunity to turn this into a showcase fight and even if he doesn’t finish, that damage should be done.
Jamall Emmers
1.21
4.60
Gabriel Miranda
Gabriel Miranda to Win via Submission or Decision (0.25 Units) 4.70
Clearly, by the number, we’re taking a big chance here. Jamall Emmers is a big favorite, but he also makes big mistakes. The decision-making angle is a solid look against some of the bigger favorites who have a history of getting caught in bad places. Emmers has been that guy, especially against grapplers, on more than one occasion. With Miranda having only one real way to finish this fight, locking in the decision angle as well at a big number makes sense. If you feel like taking a bigger risk, you can take Miranda to win via submission at 5.50.
Mexico Parlay:
Moreno / Martinez / Rosas Jr / Godinez (0.5 Units) @ 2.77
Four legs in a parlay is tough, but you have to have faith in the hometown fighters doing everything they can to win on the big stage. If that’s not enough, in all of these fights, the UFC is doing the best they can to help these fighters secure a win with favorable matchups.
The only leg that could be worrisome is Brandon Moreno, but he’s been looking like his old self and it still seems like it’s been too much too fast for Steve Erceg. With this also being the main event, there is a hedging spot with Erceg at 3.10.
UFC Mexico has several exciting fights with plenty of Mexican prospects. While this card is designed to showcase up-and-coming Mexican talent, there’s no better opportunity to play spoiler. As always, check back later in the week for some of our best bets for UFC Mexico.
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