The UFC is back in 2025 with the first card of the year, UFC Vegas 101, featuring a five-round rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas.
The first thing to notice about this card is the chalk. With no UFC cards for a few weeks, these fights have been bet into absolute oblivion. Some favorites you might be tempted to parlay now have limited to no value.
Bets to Avoid for UFC Vegas 101
The most glaring of the favorites is Fatima Kline. Opening at -375 (1.27), she’s as high as -1000 (1.1) on some sportsbooks. Even if you think she wins the fight against Victoria Dudakova, there is no value to be had. Most professional bettors would take a dog shot on Dudakova, seeing her odds move from +280 (3.8) to +650 (7.5).
Another one that stands out is Ernesta Kareckaite, who opened closer to -190 (1.53) across the board and is now as high as -300 (1.33). She’s the longer fighter, but the striking volume is limited, especially when she takes damage. On top of that, she’s been taken down by smaller fighters in the past. Nicolle Caliari is not afraid to close the distance and go for takedowns. She opened closer to +160 (2.6) and can now be had as high as +240 (3.4). She’s got experience against veterans like Kay Hansen and won her Dana White Contender Series fight via submission. She has all the tools to pull off the upset and -300 (1.33) on Kareckaite is far too wide.
Thiago Moises will be the last big favorite to avoid. Opening closer to -160 (1.63), there’s a good chance he closes above -200 (1.5). Trey Ogden has been on a tear and fought some solid UFC competition. Moises got a solid comeback fight against Mitch Ramirez but came back down to earth against Ludovit Klein. Ogden hasn’t been finished on the feet or knocked anyone out, but his grappling is sound along with his cardio. Moises is a solid grappler with improved striking but this fight could be way closer than the odds suggest.
Some Chalky Favorites to Consider for UFC Vegas 101
Starting with one of the chalkiest picks, Marco Tulio Silva has plenty to be excited about against Ihor Potieria. Just check out his Dana White Contender Series performance. Potieria has two wins in the UFC, one where he missed weight and the other when he took on an aging Shogun Rua. His defense needs improvement and his cardio has put him in bad spots in the past. This looks like a showcase fight for Tulio Silva and it would take a gigantic turn of events for Potieria to secure a win. He hasn’t been a finisher for almost five years since the Ukrainian regional scene. The best part is you can always find a hedging spot live with how wide the line is heading into the fight.
Looking at the main event, Ribas does carry some value at -200 (1.5). Be sure to shop around for the best price. Not only has she never been finished via submission, but she won the first fight on volume. She was two for two takedowns and forced Dern into bad spots by defending all six takedowns. The biggest fear with Ribas is her striking defense, but Dern doesn’t have the consistency or power on the feet to finish the fight. Dern also has a tumultuous personal life that could affect her focus level in camp. If this goes five rounds, Ribas should be able to defend Dern’s best takedowns and ride a smart striking battle to victory.
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