UFC Vegas 101 will be the first card in 2025 and it should be fun to get the ball rolling. The event is live from Las Vegas, Nevada, USA at the UFC Apex on Saturday, January 11.
The UFC Vegas 101 main event features a rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas. Both fighters hope to reach the top of the UFC ladder, and a win at UFC Vegas 101 is a good start.
For the rest of the card, there are favorites who no longer carry value, but some underdogs stand out as well. It’s important to remember when betting big numbers that you’re hoping for an unlikely outcome, but finding those fighters who are willing to fight for your dollar can be a solid investment.
At first glance, the prospect killer Christian Rodriguez stands out at 3.2 (+220), and he’s been a popular pick in prior fights. The problem here is Austin Bashi does have legitimate skills and the size difference could be a problem. This could be one to revisit after weigh-ins.
Nicole Caliari 3.20 (+220):
Nicole Caliari will be at a huge size disadvantage in this fight, but that shouldn’t be exaggerated. Ernesta Kareckaite is a take-one-to-give-one-type fighter and the volume should be there, but for how long? Caliari will employ that bulldog style to get the fight to the ground. The tape suggests that she has no problem taking a beating till she finds her spots to clinch up.
Kareckaite has not lost via submission yet, but looking at her record, she’s primarily participated in striking promotions, including boxing and kickboxing matches. On Dana White’s Contender Series, Caliari finished the fight via first-round armbar and was 66% on her takedown attempts. The betting lines suggest she should be able to do enough to keep Caliari at bay, but at 3.20 (+220) in WMMA, it’s hard to ignore the value when it’s grappler vs. striker.
Chris Curtis 2.95 (+195):
Chris Curtis might be an unpopular pick here, especially given the number, but this is one where experience plays a huge part. Curtis is a fighter with well over 50 fights under his belt against top-level competition. Looking at Kopylov’s resume, this could be his toughest test, and Curtis would be a solid favorite against most of the fighters Kopylov has fought.
This fight comes down to the wrestling. Curtis has the footwork and boxing to keep this competitive on the feet. He could edge out Kopylov in damage and volume, but his 82% takedown defense will be tested. Kopylov averages 1.2 takedowns/15 mins and will take that route if he’s unsuccessful on the feet. Lastly, Curtis had to train for five rounds against Brendan Allen last time out but goes back down to three rounds against Kopylov. This should help with the cardio in what could be a grueling battle.
Curtis is also on the hot seat. He doesn’t want to lose two fights in a row, and the UFC is always looking to trim the fat. He’s not getting any younger, recently had a baby, and comes from a great camp. With the experience, volume, and motivation on Curtis’ side, it’s hard to ignore a 2.95 (+195) price tag on a solid veteran.
Trey Ogden 2.5 (+150)
Trey Ogden has looked great in his last few fights. He’s riding a two-fight win streak with UFC losses to Ignacio Bahamondes and Jordan Leavitt. Thiago Moises will be his toughest test to date, but there are aspects of Ogden’s game to love in this spot.
Surprisingly, Ogden outvolumes Moises on the feet. His 3.07 strikes landed per minute out-paces Moises’ 2.39. On top of that, Ogden has 57% striking defense against Moises’ 54%. Moises could be the better BJJ grappler, but Ogden’s 100% takedown defense is something to rely on here. If he can stay out of dangerous spots and keep it competitive on the feet, this is anyone’s fight.
If Ogden can keep the volume up on the feet and avoid any crazy scrambles where he gets caught in a submission, he has a real chance to win this fight. When you look at Moises’ losses, ground-and-pound has been a path to victory for his opponents. All this adds up to Ogden being a good value pick at 2.5 (+150) in a pretty close fight on paper.
Win or lose, these are some great options ahead of UFC Vegas 101. While they might not win, the prices provide enough value to take a chance on these fighters. It’s also a good way of avoiding the chalky favorites, or diversifying the portfolio if you prefer taking a chance on the “sure things”. Let’s kick 2025 off with a bang at UFC Vegas 101.
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