Well, the pendulum swung the other way at UFC Winnipeg. Not only were we on the wrong end of the worst decision in UFC history when Jamey-Lyn Horth was robbed of her win, but Mandel Nallo was unable to complete the finish in the first round, which was as close as it gets. We would’ve hit three massive plays to get into the positive, but instead, we go down to -6.235 Units on the year. That’s just how MMA betting goes sometimes.
We now turn to UFC Vegas 116, which has a much more competitive card and some great spots to consider to get out of the dumps. In the main event, Youssef Zalal continues his revenge tour after returning to the UFC against a veteran Aljamain Sterling. In the co-main event, surging Joselyne Edwards takes on another veteran in Norma Dumont. Let’s take a look at the UFC Vegas 116 main card, and as always, stay tuned for our best bets later in the week as we try to right the ship.
UFC Vegas 116 Main Card Breakdown
Marcus Buchecha
1.64
2.30
Ryan Spann
Nothing is exciting about Marcus Buchecha’s style, but it’s effective in some exchanges. He came into the UFC as a pure grappler and is doing his best to keep fighters on the ground. He’s just 0-1-1 in the UFC and 5-2-1 overall in MMA, but his grappling history is substantial. He started in ONE FC, going 5-1, but dropped off after making his UFC debut. With the growing displeasure for grappling and lack of action, Buchecha needs to graduate to finishing fights on the ground. He was able to get Kennedy Nzechukwu to the ground a lot, but did very little with the positions. He has a long hill to climb to become effective at this level.
Ryan Spann is 9-6 in the UFC, and his biggest issue is cardio and durability. He’s able to put on a show early in the fight, but drops off as the rounds continue. He hasn’t won two fights in a row since 2022, but is coming off a submission win over Lukasz Brezski. He’s a great grappler and has power in his hands, but finding those spots against higher-level competition has been a problem. He has solid wins in the UFC, but hasn’t been able to find the consistency needed to jump the rankings.
Buchecha’s game plan is obvious. He wants to get you to the ground and find ways to submit you. That could work in favour of Spann, who has a massive advantage on the feet, but if Buchecha can get the fight to the ground early, Spann’s cardio could become a problem as the fight goes on. If he can pace himself and keep the fight standing, he should have every opportunity to finish the fight or win a dominant decision. Buchecha will be relentless, and his grappling history, coupled with Spann’s durability and cardio problems, are the main reasons for the betting lines.
Montel Jackson
1.55
2.50
Raoni Barcelos
Montel Jackson had a rude awakening against Deiveson Figueiredo. While the fight ended in a split decision loss, there were moments where he got dominated. His wrestling and grappling were exposed, and he was a massive favorite going into that fight. Before that, Jackson was riding a six-fight win streak, and he finished three of those fights in the first round. He’s 9-3 in the UFC, and he’s been able to dominate lower-level fighters on his way to the rankings.
Raeoni Barcelos is an anomaly. He’s 38 years old, but coming off the best year of his UFC career. He won all three fights in 2025 and defeated solid competition. His performance against Payton Talbott was nothing short of spectacular. He weathered the storm, used his wrestling, and was able to neutralize a surging prospect who is now looking like one of the best young fighters in the UFC. He’s 10-4 in the UFC, losing only one fight via finish against Umar Nurmagomedov.
Jackson has a lot to prove in this fight. He’s taking on another solid veteran who presents problems both on the feet and on the ground. He’s a technical striker who picks his shots well, but Barcelos is a good boxer who should have an edge if this turns into a brawl. If Barcelos uses his wrestling, it will be imperative for Jackson to get back up. With the age factor and Barcelos’ decreasing durability, he could easily find a knockout if this stays on the feet, especially with an eight-inch reach advantage. However, with how good Barcelos looked last year, coupled with his advantage in wrestling and on the ground, he is one of the best underdog looks for UFC Vegas 116.
Davey Grant
1.81
2.02
Adrian Luna Martinetti
Davey Grant has been in the UFC since 2013 and is 8-7 in that time. He’s never been knocked out, but he’s been rocked plenty. Last time out, he took a massive knee from Charles Jourdain and submitted. He was riding a two-fight win streak before that, but has traded wins and losses for most of his career. He had a long stream of bonuses five years ago, but has slowed down ever since. He’s a classic take-one-to-give-one fighter who dishes out a beating as well as he takes one. He’s well-rounded despite his wild style and is always in exciting fights.
Adrian Luna Martinetti made a name for himself in what is widely considered the fight of the year last year on Dana White’s Contender Series. Martinetti and Mark Vologdin threw down in a back-and-forth war that ended with a decision win for Martinetti. What stands out in that win is that Martinetti was still hittable and survived a tough round one to take over the fight.
Against Grant, Martinetti needs to be careful. Grant can be rocked, but he survives. He’s a tricky fighter on the ground and will have a massive experience advantage in this fight. Martinetti needs to pick his shots well, avoid the brawls, and keep the fight standing. Grant will surely mix it up if he gets in hot water, and it would not be surprising to see Grant lean on his wrestling and grappling if the striking exchanges are going the wrong way. This is a competitive fight between an aging veteran and an exciting prospect, and the betting lines suggest it can go either way.
Rafa Garcia
2.10
1.76
Alexander Hernandez
Rafa Garcia has flown under the radar with 10 UFC fights so far. He’s been in the UFC for five years and has a 6-4 record. He won his last two fights, finishing Jared Gordon, and is training with Cub Swanson. The Bloodlines gym is on absolute fire right now, and it complements his style of good boxing, durability, and sneaky wrestling. He’s never been submitted, was only knocked out by Grant Dawson, and cardio has been solid so far.
Alexander Hernandez’s record is misleading. He struggled at featherweight in the UFC, but his record at lightweight is impressive. He’s also fought solid veterans throughout his UFC career, is now entering his prime on a four-fight streak, and is 10-7 overall in the UFC. He finished his last two fights beautifully, and his boxing looks crisper, with better footwork and improved power.
This is an interesting fight. Hernandez had durability and cardio problems at featherweight, but he’s still hittable. Garcia averages three takedowns a fight, and he finds ways to control the fight to steal decisions. Both fighters throw with high volume and get hit, but this could come down to who has the more powerful strikes. This is an even fight, with Hernandez having a massive edge in experience.
Norma Dumont
1.43
2.90
Joselyne Edwards
Norma Dumont is a true UFC veteran. She’s 9-2 in the UFC but is a decision machine. She has no finishes in the UFC, and was finished on the feet in her UFC debut back in 2020. She’s a technical striker with a good mix of skills. She uses the fence well and can defend against bad positions, which keeps her in the fight. She has impeccable striking defense at 65%, but she tends to be low-volume and lacks power. She’s currently on a six-fight win streak, which puts her in the upper echelon of bantamweights heading into this weekend.
Joselyne Edwards has made a major change in her UFC career. After losing back-to-back fights and not showing much early in her career, she’s now 4-0 with four finishes. While the competition has been on the lower end of the division, she’s showing hunger to finish fights, with two submissions and two knockout wins in her last four wins.
The major difference here is technical skill. Dumont should be the far better technical striker who can counter Edwards’ looping hooks. She should also be the stronger fighter, defending takedowns and keeping the fight where she wants it. If she’s able to get the fight to the ground, it’s tough to see Edwards getting back up. Edwards needs to make this a brawl and find ways to land big shots to take over the fight. In an era where damage should be the difference maker, it’s her best chance to steal the win against a much more savvy veteran.
Aljamain Sterling
2.20
1.70
Youssef Zalal
Aljamain Sterling is at the tail end of his career, but he’s had a solid UFC career nonetheless. Since moving up to featherweight, Sterling is 2-1 with wins against Calvin Kattar and Brian Ortega. What stands out the most in Sterling’s recent fights is that he’s taking on aging fighters. He’s lost against good competition and looked good against struggling fighters. His boxing has improved with a solid jab, and his wrestling is always a threat. Will that be enough in this fight?
Youssef Zalal is starting to make his mark in the UFC. Yes, he’s taking on some aging veterans, but his IQ stands out. He’s found ways to stay out of danger and take advantage of any spots he gets. Since leaving the UFC, Zalal is on a 10-fight win streak, including a five-fight win streak in the UFC. His cardio came into question against Kattar, but outside of that, he’s been finishing fights within two rounds. He has solid footwork, good counter-striking, and controls the pace against anyone.
The betting line speaks for itself. Given Sterling’s experience and skill set, he’s getting some respect as a close underdog, but the fact is, he’s getting older and hasn’t fought a true contender in a long time. Zalal continues to look better, and his strengths in this fight make him a tough opponent for Sterling. Zalal’s takedown defense at 59% stands out, but Sterling is undersized in this fight, and Zalal’s ability to maintain the distance and land better combinations will be a major difference maker here. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this betting line get worse as fight night approaches.
UFC Vegas 116 Best Bets
- 2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
- 2026 Record: 24-37, -6.235 Units
(Coming soon…)
UFC Vegas 116 is a breath of fresh air after what seemed like a Canadian regional card at best. There is a solid mix of savvy veterans, hungry contenders, and up-and-coming fighters looking to make a splash in the UFC. While the betting
has been a tough run lately, we’ll do our best to change the tide as we head into a solid slate of UFC cards.
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