UFC Freedom 250 was a great card overall, but I dropped the ball by not following my gut. I mentioned the Justin Gaethje hedge, but I had such a feeling he was going to pull off something amazing. We dropped the ball there, and we’re now sitting at -7.845 Units on the year. We have plenty of work to do for the second half of the year.
The UFC heads back to the UFC APEX for UFC Vegas 119 for a high-level flyweight showdown between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi. While the rest of the card doesn’t have the same name value, the matchups should be exciting. Let’s take a look at the UFC Vegas 119 main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for best bets as we try to turn this thing around.
UFC Vegas 119 Main Card Breakdown
Melsik Baghdasaryan
3.50
1.32
Murtazali Magomedov
Melsik Baghdasaryan hasn’t been active in the UFC. Since his Dana White Contender Series fight in 2020, he’s only fought five times. He’s 3-2 in the UFC and hasn’t won since defeating Tucker Lutz in 2023. He’s a good kickboxer, but his one-dimensional style hasn’t been successful against more well-rounded fighters. The rough part for Baghdasaryan is despite not fighting since 2023, his first fight back was with Jean Silva. That’s a massive step up in competition and, for obvious reasons, it was no surprise to see him lose via first-round knockout.
Murtazali Magomedov will be making his UFC debut after winning in the first round of his Contender Series fight. He’s 10-0 overall with five knockouts and five submissions. He comes in with real power in his hands, but doesn’t shy away from finding the finish on the ground. This is exactly the type of prospect the UFC is looking for, and he has a high ceiling if he can get it done in his UFC debut.
The massive breaks and limited action are the biggest question marks with Baghdasaryan. His fights are exciting, and he came in with a lot of hype, but the kickboxing wasn’t enough against UFC talent. Unless he has spent the time away improving his skills and becoming a more well-rounded fighter, it’s hard to see him finding success with another good striker with a sneaky ground game. For what it’s worth, this fight should be fireworks for as long as it lasts.
Andre Lima
1.16
5.40
Kevin Borjas
We haven’t seen Andre Lima in over a year, but he’s also one of the few undefeated fighters who have had early success in the UFC. After his Contender Series fight in 2023, Lima is 4-0 in the UFC. His last win was via submission against Daniel Barez in March 2025. Despite not seeing him much, Lima is a solid prospect with well-rounded skills. He’s solid on the feet, with a 60% striking accuracy and 57% defense, and he’s able to mix in the takedowns and grappling as well.
Kevin Borjas has been on a rapid decline over the last year. After beating Ronaldo Rodriguez at the beginning of last year, he lost his following two fights. He was dominated in a decision loss to Sumudaerji and followed that up with a second-round knockout loss to rising prospect Imanol Rodriguez. Borjas relies on his striking to win fights, but he’s 1-4 in the UFC and is likely one more loss away from getting cut.
On paper, both these fighters are on opposite ends of their UFC careers, and Lima has a significant advantage in grappling and defensive striking. Borjas could make this a war, and that’s his best path to victory, but Lima should be too much for him. If the striking is competitive, Lima will go to his wrestling and grappling and look for a submission. Given the massive difference in skills, it’s hard to give Borjas any chance of an upset.
Hyder Amil
2.50
1.55
Christian Rodriguez
Hyder Amil won three straight UFC fights after getting a contract on Contender Series, but he’s lost two straight since then. His best win is a split decision over William Gomis, but he fell short to Jose Delgado in under 30 seconds, and lost to Jamall Emmers via decision last time out. Amil relies heavily on his boxing and leg kicks, but he struggles mightily when the fight hits the ground. The power is there, but he needs to find ways to keep the fight standing to have any chance of utilizing it.
Christian Rodriguez is also coming off two-straight losses, but his strength of schedule is much higher. With weight cutting issues at 135, Rodriguez is now staying put at 145, and that comes with tougher opponents given his style. He has solid wrestling and averages 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his striking is low volume but effective. He seemed to have cardio issues against Melquizael Costa, but the output was intense and both fighters were constantly fighting for position.
This could be a similar experience for both fighters. Amil will want to keep his distance, fire off the leg kicks and land the bigger combos. Rodriguez could lean on his grappling if he’s struggling on the feet, and should have the ability to control from top position on the ground. Based on both fighters’ skill sets, it would make sense to see Rodriguez use the cage and threaten takedowns to take away Amil’s power. Rodriguez has never been knocked out, but if this stays at distance, Amil could have the more successful moments leading to a close to decision.
Vinicius Oliveira
1.40
3.00
Andre Fili
Vinicius Oliveira took a massive leap in competition last time out and fell short against Mario Bautista. He was 4-0 in the UFC going into the fight, but Bautista’s experience, timing and wrestling was just too much for the rising star. His fights are exciting, he goes for the finish, and he’s continued to improve with every fight. There were worries about his durability and chin, but he’s been able to hold up in the UFC so far. His flying kneed finish over Bernardo Sopaj is aging well.
Andre Fili has been fighting in the UFC for ages, and he’s done a fair job of sticking around. He’s 13-12 overall, but his fights are exciting, and he’s always been in fights against the upper echelon of UFC fighters. He fights long, has a good wrestling background, and is always pushing a strong pace. His fights always end up close if they go to a decision, with three of his last four fights going to a split. While his record doesn’t show it, Fili has plenty of high-level experience and is a solid UFC veteran.
If Oliveira over-exerts himself, Fili will be all over him. There could be some amazing scrambles in this fight, given both fighters ability to wrestle and find the right transitions to stay out of danger. Oliveira should have the power advantage, but Fili has only been knocked out four times in 38 fights. This will be a solid mix of technical MMA skills and an absolute dog fight. This line seems a little wide, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Fili make this another close fight if it lasts all three rounds.
Ion Cutelaba
3.60
1.30
Navajo Sterling
Ion Cutelaba has taken a positive turn in his UFC career. Despite being 9-10 in the UFC, he’s 3-2 in his last five, with his most recent loss being a split decision to Modestas Bukauskas. He finished his two most recent losses in the first round via submission, and he hasn’t lost via finish since 2022. Cutelaba used to fight reckless, but he’s now showing signs of making a good gameplan, and using his grappling when he needs to. Oumar Sy was considered a solid grappler, but Cutelaba was not only able to answer back, but he finished Sy with a mounted guillotine in the first round.
Navajo Sterling is 4-0 in the UFC, scoring his first finish last time out. There’s plenty of hype surrounding him, but he’s been lackluster given the level of competition. The UFC has scheduled him for favourable fights where he should score a finish, but between the grappling and cardio, he’s had to settle for three decisions before finishing his last fight. He looked a lot more confident and willing to go for the finish, but it all comes down to the level of competition.
Cutelaba should employ a similar gameplan to his previous few fights. Sterling is a heavy-handed kickboxer who could find the finishing blow any time in the fight. If Cutelaba should force Sterling against the fence, use his grappling and wrestling, and make Sterling work for the striking distance. If the fight hits the ground, Cutelaba surely has the upper hand, and should be able to control Sterling as the fight progresses. If Sterling can keep the fight standing, he should have a slight technical and power advantage, which could mean another highlight reel knockout.
Manel Kape
1.61
2.36
Kyoji Horiguchi
Manel Kape is another fighter who hasn’t been very active, but he’s starting to come into his own and is now a legitimate title challenger. He’s only fought six times since 2021, but he’s 5-1 in that time. He only lost to Muhammad Mokaev, but has finished Bruno Silva, Asu Almabayev and Brandon Royval since then. His striking is elite, he knows how to fight long, and power is starting to come alive. He’s never been finished on the feet, but the threat of the takedowns is something he has struggled with in the past.
Kyoji Horiguchi is on his second stint with the UFC after spending time with RIZIN as the champion. He’s 2-0 in the UFC since returning, and beat Tagir Ulanbekov and Amir Albazi in back-to-back fights. Given his name and resume, he’s already in the title conversation and is getting a massive step in competition. He’s a well-rounded fighter with solid kickboxing and grappling. He hasn’t lost since 2022 when he was in Bellator as a bantamweight, but as a flyweight, he’s been far more successful.
This is a massive fight for the flyweight division. Kape has a five-inch reach advantage, and that plays well into his overall gameplan. He will try to strike from the outside, look for counters, and avoid the ground game. Horiguchi’s best path to victory is getting in close, using his leg kicks, and finding ways to get the fight to the ground. If he can force Kape into uncomfortable spots, it’s his best chance to pull off the victory. Kape should be the better striker, and with the reach advantage, it will be difficult for Horiguchi to close the distance.
UFC Vegas 119 Best Bets
2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
2026 Record: 36-62-1, -7.845 Units
(Coming Soon…)
UFC Vegas 119 doesn’t have the biggest names, but there are plenty of prospects making their way back to the APEX to climb the UFC ranks. On top of that, the main card should deliver, with title implications in the main event between Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi. The main event should make it all worth it.
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