We’re back! UFC 327 could have been a massive card for us if Kelvin Gastelum didn’t sell hard with a terrible loss, but we won +2.635 Units at UFC 327 and now sit at -2.985 Units after a terrible start to the year. We now head to Canada for UFC Winnipeg.
UFC Winnipeg isn’t the most star-studded card, but there are plenty of exciting fighters hoping to increase their stock, and Canadian MMA has a solid chance at a resurgence with plenty of talent fighting this weekend. Mike Malott will take on Gilbert Burns in the main event, with Charles Jourdain taking on Kyler Phillips in the co-main event. Let’s take a look at the UFC Winnipeg main card, and don’t forget to check back later in the week for our best bets.
UFC Winnipeg Main Card Breakdown
Dennis Buzukja
4.50
1.21
Marcio Barbosa
Dennis Buzukja hasn’t been in the UFC since 2024. He’s 1-3 so far, and lost two fights via decision and got knocked out by Jamall Emmers in the first round back in 2023. He tends to mix it up well, but his biggest issue is taking damage. His best win in the UFC showed his ability to last and find a finish in the third round. Against more powerful strikers, it’s harder to make those types of wins happen.
Marcio Barbosa is just that. He’s incredibly powerful and has gone past the second round just once in the last five years. He has been finished twice on the feet in that time, but he’s riding a four-fight first-round finishing streak, including a contract-winning Dana White Contender Series fight last time out. His hooks are powerful, he pushes a fast pace, and is constantly head-hunting. Of his 17 wins, 14 have come via knockout. This is exactly the type of fighter the UFC is looking for in 2026.
The path to victory here is clear for Buzukja. The only time Barbosa has lost is when he goes past the first round. He gets tired after unloading in round one, and gets finished in the second round after emptying the tank. If Buzukja can weather the storm, which is a big “if”, there is potential for him to pull off the massive upset. He should have better cardio, and his chances of winning increase with every passing round. In terms of the most likely scenario, Barbosa should come out guns blazing and look for a finish in the first round.
Thiago Moises
2.10
1.76
Gauge Young
Thiago Moises’ experience is a massive advantage in this. At just 31, he has 15 UFC fights with an 8-7 record. He’s moved over to the Fighting Nerds, but how much that will help remains to be seen. His durability is starting to diminish, as was seen in his last fight against Jared Gordon. While he’s losing to solid competition, his wins are against lower-end fighters. His best win in the last three years was against Melky Costa, but he’s 2-3 since then.
Gauge Young is the much younger fighter here and should be the one pushing the pace and forcing the fight into tough situations. He’s 1-1 in the UFC but has never been finished on the feet and has eight knockouts in his MMA career. His Dana White Contender Series loss to Quillan Salkilld is aging well, and his finishing ability was impressive on the regional scene.
This fight should be a grappler vs. striker. While Young is the younger fighter who should push forward and force a brawl, Moises’ best path to victory is to force the grappling and see if he can find a submission. Moises has eight wins via submission, including three at the UFC level. If Moises can’t find the takedowns, Young should be able to edge him out on the feet for the victory.
Jasmine Jasudavicius
1.32
3.50
Karine Silva
Jasmine Jasudavicius is coming off her toughest fight to date and came away with a loss against Manon Fiorot. Before that, she was riding a five-fight win streak and finished Jessica Andrade in her last win. She has good size for the division, and her wrestling is becoming a real problem for the division. She’s getting up there in age, but for women’s MMA, her skill and experience will keep her going for a few more fights as she tries to get back to the top.
Karine Silva has been successful in the UFC, but she tends to lose to the well-rounded, ranked fighters. She struggles with wrestlers, even though her grappling is solid, and she spends far too much time on her back. She beat Dione Barbosa last year, but lost to Maycee Barber after that. Barber was able to take over once the fight hit the ground and control from the top position. She’s only lost twice in the UFC and has a record of 5-2, but this could be another tough stylistic test.
Jasudavicius has improved striking, but her wrestling will be key in this fight. Silva will do everything she can to keep it standing, or find grappling opportunities, but it will be hard to keep Jasudavicius from landing her takedowns. Silva has a 21% takedown defense and struggles on the feet. Jasudavicius averages 2.59 takedowns per fight, and she will be able to have her way in a dominant win against Silva.
Mandel Nallo
1.55
2.50
Jai Herbert
Mandel Nallo put on a show on Dana White’s Contender Series. His striking is sharp, he’s got some good power, and he’s taken his time to get to this level. He’s only 14-3 at 36 years old and is making his UFC debut after receiving a UFC contract last September. He’s never been to a decision, and all three losses have come via finish after the first round. He was 4-3 in Bellator and is now riding a five-fight first-round finishing streak since 2023.
Jai Herbert has a massive experience advantage here, but the durability is a big question. He’s only been finished twice on the feet, once by Ilia Topuria, but he’s been rocked in a few fights, and it’s cost him close decisions. He’s 3-5 in the UFC, but his strength of schedule is tough. He debuted against Francisco Trinaldo, fought Renato Moicano in his second fight, and then fought Ilia Topuria after his first UFC win. His UFC record is a little misleading, and his technical striking is solid.
This will be an entertaining battle on the feet. Nallo should have a solid power edge, but Herbert is a clean striker who can land well over three rounds. If Nallo can’t get the job done early, this could turn into a back-and-forth war where both fighters have their moments. Herbert’s best path to victory is trying to avoid the big power shots and counter with volume. Nallo picks his shots carefully, and if he can’t find the big shot, Herbert should be able to win a technical battle. If he does, Nallo should be able to finish this fight in the first round with his accuracy and power.
Kyler Phillips
2.30
1.64
Charles Jourdain
Kyler Phillips is on a bit of a downward slope. He’s lost his last two to Rob Font and Vinicius Oliveira, and he was dominated last time out. His biggest issue is taking damage, losing momentum, and falling behind. When he does well, he starts fast and carries the confidence into later rounds, but he hasn’t been able to find that edge in recent fights. He fights long, has good combinations, and can mix it up well, but the jump in competition hasn’t been good to him. He’s only fought five times since 2022 and is 3-2 in that time.
Charles Jourdain’s strength of schedule is paying off in the long run. He’s been fighting solid UFC fighters since his debut, and after losing a couple in a row against tough competition, he’s now riding a two-fight win streak after finishing his last two fights via guillotine choke. He’s a good kickboxer, but he’s started to show signs of a smart fighter who can take advantage of opportunities. He’s only 30 and entering his 17th UFC fight, so this could be a perfect chance to take his career to the next level.
Recency bias is a major reason for the current betting market. Phillips has a solid 60% striking defense and averages 2.31 takedowns per fight. The skills and versatility are there, but he needs to bring it all together as he takes on tougher competition. He’ll also have a three-inch reach advantage, and using that against Jourdain is a solid way to maintain distance and landing at range. For Jourdain, he needs to start fast, attack the body, and find ways to make Phillips uncomfortable early. If he can do that, it’ll be hard for Phillips to change the tide as Jourdain’s confidence grows. This is a high-level fight, and it will come down to who has the better moments early in the fight.
Gilbert Burns
3.45
1.32
Mike Malott
Gilbert Burns is a longtime fan favorite and legend of the sport. His fights are exciting, and in his prime, he was taking bodies and working his way to a title shot. Fast forward to 2026, and he’s coming off a brutal knockout and has lost his last four fights dating back to 2023. He hasn’t won since 2023 and is 39 years old. His losses are against legitimate title challengers and champions, but time is not on his side, and he now gets an up-and-coming fighter who is far lower in the rankings.
Mike Malott is 6-1 in the UFC and recovered well after his veteran test fight against Neil Magny. He has won three straight fights, including a unanimous decision win over Kevin Holland last time out. He’s a powerful striker who has improved his cardio and has a solid mix of sneaky grappling in his back pocket. He isn’t the most respected fighter yet, but a main event win against a popular veteran should improve his stock with MMA fans.
Burns will need to weather the storm and find ways to grapple. Magny had success by pacing himself and turning the tide as the fight went on. We don’t know what Malott will look like in the championship rounds, and a solid grappling test early in the fight could be exactly what Burns needs to steal the fight. Malott will be throwing bombs and looking to end Burns in the first two rounds. There’s proof in the pudding when it comes to Burns’ durability, and Malott will do everything he can to score the highlight reel knockout. For long-time UFC fans, it would be nice to see Burns turn this into a fight where both fighters give their all over five rounds.
UFC Winnipeg Best Bets
- 2025 Total Units Won: +29.97 Units
- 2026 Record: 24-37, -2.985 Units
(Coming soon…)
After an action-packed UFC 327, UFC Winnipeg is a back-down-to-Earth card with exciting but unknown fighters. UFC Winnipeg is all about the up-and-comers and Canadian talent in the UFC. With a few bright spots, Canadian MMA has a chance to shine at the UFC level after a long hiatus over the last few years. Can the Canadian fighters get it done in Winnipeg? We will see.
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