UFC 311 marks the first PPV of 2025 and features one of the most anticipated bouts in MMA, the rematch between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan.
Both fighters have come a long way since then. While Makhachev is the current UFC lightweight champion and the number one pound-for-pound fighter according to the UFC, Tsarukyan is 9-1 since their first fight, losing only to ex-stable mate Mateusz Gamrot.
Tsarukyan last fought Charles Oliveira and won via split decision. Some argue that Tsarukyan should have lost that fight, but in his defense, he won the grappling exchanges. That fight should have been five rounds to determine the number one contender.
With both fighters at their absolute best in 2025, there is no better time to reflect on their first meeting in 2019. Tsarukyan was making his UFC debut against Makhachev after going 13-1 on the regional scene.
UFC on ESPN +7: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 1
The most glaring difference compared today is both fighters are bigger, stronger, and certainly more experienced.
In the first round, you can see the difference in grappling. Makhachev had a beautiful sweep into mount that you don’t see every day. It takes a special kind of talent to pull that off. This became a learning experience for Tsarukyan. In his defense, he did a solid job in the first round of trying to defend bad positions and even had Makhachev’s back towards the end of the round.
Dan Hardy has the perfect quote in the second round: “We could have a new contender here because this is 50-50.” At the time, people were surprised to see someone have relative success in the wrestling exchanges with Makhachev, which makes this fight so special.
As the fight continued, it was obvious that Tsarukyan was doing everything he could to land the big shots and keep his distance. He had some solid high kicks and big hooks to put Makhachev out but, as always, Makhachev pushed forward. Tsasurkyan was drowning. There were moments when you could see him look up at the clock hoping for a bell.
The glaring differences here were the grappling, cardio, and strength. Makhachev was leading in all those feats, but Tsarukyan had solid power in his strikes, and his defense in some of the wrestling exchanges and against the fence was impressive.
Tsarukyan relied heavily on his wrestling in recent fights, which makes this an even more interesting matchup. He’ll have to do more against Makhachev because few can avoid bad spots on the ground better than him.
How does the fight play out for UFC 311?
In terms of evolution, the lean has to be Makhachev to win again. For one, he’s improved tremendously as a striker. His cage IQ and creativity are at an all-time high as well.
Tsarukyan has to make the most of his chances on the feet while utilizing his wrestling defense. His previous game plans of grinding out opponents won’t work against Makhachev. On top of that, the cardio factor over five rounds is something else to consider. Both fighters have looked a little gassed in the past, but Makhachev looked a lot better against Dustin Poirier. Tsarukyan could have lost to Oliveira if the fight lasted five rounds.
Both fighters are in incredible shape heading into 311, but the edge has to go to Makhachev who is currently a 1.24 (-410) favorite against Tsarukyan’s 4.20 (+320) dog price. It would be accurate to say that the MMA community would be in relative shock if Tsarukyan pulled off the upset, but he has the tools to do it.
Catch the main event for UFC 311 this weekend, with plenty of other great fights, including Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov and Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill.
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